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The year 2015 is a year of leapfrog development for China's photovoltaic industry. The installed scale of photovoltaic power generation is expected to exceed 39 million kw by the end of the year, with the newly installed scale and accumulated installed scale far exceeding that of other countries.
The Chinese government is confident in developing the photovoltaic industry. Both the Paris agreement, which was reached after arduous negotiations in 2015, and the document on China's nationally determined contribution to climate change submitted to the United Nations demonstrate the Chinese government's determination and attitude to carry out the energy revolution and realize green and low-carbon development. As the representative of traditional fossil energy, coal industry has gradually lost its luster, while the new energy industry represented by photovoltaic industry has ushered in a historic development opportunity. According to the policy layer, during the 13th five-year plan period, the annual average installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is expected to reach 20 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity is expected to reach 150 million kilowatts. Faced with huge market space and favorable policies, the photovoltaic industry is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in 2016.
The cost of photovoltaic system is gradually reduced, which is good for the development of the whole industry. At present, the main reason that restricts the large-scale development of photovoltaic industry is its high system cost. Photovoltaic power generation must rely on subsidies to ensure its benefits. In recent years, the cost of photovoltaic modules, which account for the largest proportion in the cost of photovoltaic system, has been affected by the decrease of raw material cost and technological upgrading. Based on the current innovative research and development results of photovoltaic modules, the cost of photovoltaic modules is in a relatively certain cost reduction channel. In addition, inverter and other equipment market competition accumulation, resulting in its cost continued to fall. With the continuous decline of photovoltaic system cost, even if subsidies are not timely in place, the competitiveness of photovoltaic power will gradually improve, and eventually realize the goal of photovoltaic net access.
The shortfall in the national renewable energy development fund, which pays subsidies for renewable energy, has been growing for years, mainly because the surcharge on the price of electricity for renewable energy has not been fully realized. Although China has raised the additional standard of renewable energy price to 1.5 cents /kWh in 2013, the growth rate of the renewable energy development fund is far from meeting the demand for subsidies for new renewable energy installations. In order to weaken the dependence of the photovoltaic industry on subsidies, and force the photovoltaic industry to upgrade its technology and reduce its cost with price, the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the benchmark price of photovoltaic electricity again by 0.02-0.1 yuan /kWh at the end of the year. Different from the adjustment of benchmark electricity price for onshore wind power in 2016 and 2018, the benchmark electricity price for photovoltaic power generation after 2017 has not been defined yet, which reflects the policy guidance of continuing to support the development of photovoltaic market.
During the 12th five-year plan period, the formulation of China's power industry planning was delayed due to the impact of uhv construction and other major pending issues. After nearly two years of shelving, the government did not launch the power industry planning, but changed to energy development planning and renewable energy development planning. The time and space mismatch between ambitious renewable energy development goals and the lagging construction of power grid supporting facilities has led to "extensive and normal" electricity curtailment and light curtailment. Coupled with the economic slowdown, insufficient power demand, photovoltaic industry has encountered an unprecedented crisis of power rationing. The 13th five-year plan for the development of the power industry in 2016 will be compiled as the most important plan, which is expected to be released in 2017. The development of the photovoltaic industry is expected to return to rationality. It pays attention to the unified planning and coordinated development of regional power installation and power grid construction, and achieves the balance of time and space between resources and power grid construction, so that photovoltaic panels will no longer lie alone on the ground in the sun.
Industry integration and merger and acquisition will become the mainstream photovoltaic module manufacturers out of the winter tend to asset-light operation mode, in 2015, the major photovoltaic enterprises are basically full production, the excess part is inclined to use outsourcing processing mode. At the macro level, the state has adopted policies such as the "front-runner plan" to support the merger, acquisition and reorganization of enterprises with backward production capacity of superior enterprises in the middle and upper reaches of photovoltaic industry, so as to promote the technological upgrading of the industry. Some photovoltaic power generation enterprises expand rapidly in the mode of high debt, but the cash flow cannot cover the interest expenses due to insufficient subsidies, power rationing and other factors. In 2016, the capital chain of photovoltaic power generation enterprises will remain tight, and it will become a trend that photovoltaic power generation enterprises are forced to transfer power stations or be acquired or merged. In addition, enterprises in traditional industries trying to transform into the photovoltaic industry will also quickly enter the photovoltaic industry by means of merger and acquisition, and 2016 May become the year of integration and merger of the photovoltaic industry.
After years of entangling with the eu on the issue of "double opposition", Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have gradually shifted their market focus to emerging markets. The demand for photovoltaic products in India, Africa and other emerging markets is increasing year by year, and the demand for photovoltaic products in "One Belt And One Road" region is also gradually released. In 2016, the overseas photovoltaic market will become a key area for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises to compete for.
During the 13th five-year plan period (2016-2020), China's photovoltaic industry is still under a cloud. The closed cycle system is mainly applied to water cooling of single-crystal silicon and polycrystal silicon furnaces and vacuum units in the field of photovoltaic production and manufacturing, which solves the technical problems such as scale scale and water temperature in the refining process.
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